3 out of 4 E&P projects miss their sanctioned NPV estimate by an average of 35%. How do yours perform?

Web-Based Predictive & Diagnostic Tool

IPA’s Oil & Gas Asset Economics Simulator (AES) promotes a more holistic view of total asset performance by consolidating IPA’s research on E&P asset successes and failures into the delta NPV outcome, an objective capstone measure of asset performance.

Although Monte Carlo simulation is a popular technique for estimating likely E&P asset outcomes, its insights are only as useful as the assumptions that are fed into it. These assumptions, which boil down to probability distributions around key input variables, tend to be too optimistic both in terms of the average and range of possibilities around this average.

What distinguishes the AES is the quality of its underlying inputs, which are based on IPA’s extensive database of E&P developments and more than a decade of empirical research linking project practices and outcomes.


AES outputscreen final


  • Eliminate bias from company estimates
  • Assess the true effect project practices are likely to have on NPV
  • Identify projects on track to fail or underperform
  • Evaluate trade-offs of different project development strategies
  • Identify project system factors contributing to NPV erosion


Answer Key Questions

  • What are the biggest factors eroding project value?
  • How can we better recognize when project estimates are unrealistically optimistic?
  • How would better forecasts of project results change our investment decisions?


Schedule a Demo

Contact René Klerian Ramírez, AES Product Manager, to learn more and to request a demo.











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